Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Smithson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Smithson 56.5% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 80.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 81.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 80.1%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Kelly
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Kelly
Smithson
Last 9: Kelly 2-7 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
1
Kelly
Smithson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
5
Kelly
Smithson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
1
Kelly
Smithson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
58.4% (1,842)
-7.3%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
55.6% (45)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
50.6% (443)
-5.9%
On even strength, Smithson has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Smithson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,681).
Home / Away
Kelly
Smithson
Home
52.6% (1,965)
58.4% (1,195)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
55.0% (1,150)
By Period
Kelly
Smithson
P1
49.2%
55.9%
P2
49.1%
55.3%
P3
51.9%
59.0%
OT
53.5%
54.2%
Final 5 min
50.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2013 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 9, 2013 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 9, 2013 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 9, 2013 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 9, 2013 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |