Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.8% vs Connolly 46.3% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 53.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 85.1%
Neutral zone
Kelly 77.9%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Kelly
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kelly
Connolly
Last 7: Kelly 5-2 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
1
Kelly
Connolly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (723)
47.0% (702)
+4.9%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
49.7% (165)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (166)
29.9% (97)
+16.5%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Kelly is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Kelly shoots left. Connolly is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Kelly
Connolly
Home
53.8% (442)
46.7% (512)
Away
48.1% (474)
45.1% (457)
By Period
Kelly
Connolly
P1
50.2%
46.5%
P2
47.6%
47.5%
P3
54.5%
44.0%
OT
85.7%
40.9%
Final 5 min
52.8%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.9%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2011 | 3 | 13:49 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 3 | 13:41 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 1 | 07:25 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 8, 2010 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |