Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Connolly 47.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 56.9%
Defensive zone
Kelly 78.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 66.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Kelly
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Kelly
Connolly
Last 10: Kelly 7-3 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
2
Kelly
Connolly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
47.4% (1,307)
+3.7%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
50.2% (251)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
41.9% (186)
+2.8%
On power play, Kelly has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Kelly
Connolly
Home
52.6% (1,965)
48.5% (870)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Kelly
Connolly
P1
49.2%
47.4%
P2
49.1%
47.7%
P3
51.9%
47.0%
OT
53.5%
37.8%
Final 5 min
50.3%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2011 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 30, 2011 | 2 | 02:22 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 3 | 13:49 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 3 | 13:41 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 1 | 07:25 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 8, 2010 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |