Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Tierney wins 38.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 47.9% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-6.4%)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 71.9%
Defensive zone
Tierney 67.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Tierney
Pavelski
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (193)
52.3% (560)
-5.7%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
57.5% (113)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (40)
62.5% (16)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Tierney is 38.6% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Tierney shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Tierney
Pavelski
Home
47.9% (121)
54.2% (360)
Away
46.1% (115)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Tierney
Pavelski
P1
44.1%
54.5%
P2
50.0%
56.7%
P3
46.3%
50.8%
Final 5 min
52.4%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
47.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%