Scouting Report
Chris Wagner holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.0% vs Novak 43.0% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 81.8%
Defensive zone
Wagner 82.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 61.6%
38.4%
61.6%
Wagner
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Wagner
Novak
Last 6: Wagner 3-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Wagner
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (1,243)
41.8% (1,568)
+9.0%
Power Play
40.0% (20)
51.5% (134)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (307)
50.0% (2)
-8.0%
On power play, Novak has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Wagner is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Wagner shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Wagner
Novak
Home
49.8% (817)
45.1% (831)
Away
47.9% (753)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Wagner
Novak
P1
48.6%
43.7%
P2
48.6%
42.8%
P3
49.5%
41.1%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.2%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:07 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |