Christian Dvorak vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs McDavid 48.1% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 74.1%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 93.3%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 84.8%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Dvorak
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
1
(10 meetings)
9
1
Dvorak
McDavid
Last 10: Dvorak 9-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
6
0
Dvorak
McDavid
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
0
Dvorak
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Dvorak
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
47.7% (686)
+6.5%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
49.3% (75)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
48.9% (45)
-2.5%
On even strength, Dvorak has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Dvorak
McDavid
Home
53.9% (497)
50.0% (412)
Away
53.3% (522)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Dvorak
McDavid
P1
54.6%
48.0%
P2
53.2%
48.5%
P3
54.3%
47.1%
OT
34.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 07:29 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:31 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |