Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 53.4%). Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.2% vs Monahan 53.1% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 55.8%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 51.2%
Neutral zone
Monahan 58.8%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Dvorak
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dvorak
Monahan
Last 6: Dvorak 4-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
0
Dvorak
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dvorak
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Dvorak
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (555)
53.8% (664)
+0.1%
Power Play
52.3% (86)
53.3% (137)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (61)
50.0% (62)
+4.1%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Dvorak is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Dvorak shoots left. Monahan is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Monahan
Home
53.1% (341)
54.8% (405)
Away
54.3% (361)
52.2% (458)
By Period
Dvorak
Monahan
P1
52.8%
49.6%
P2
53.4%
53.9%
P3
55.7%
55.2%
OT
38.5%
65.0%
Final 5 min
47.7%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
52.0%▬
52.0%
53.7%
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 14:56 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:40 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |