Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Giroux wins 63.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 61.3% vs McDavid 48.1% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Giroux 77.3%
Defensive zone
Giroux 87.9%
Neutral zone
Giroux 76.1%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Giroux
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Giroux
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
1
Giroux
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
1
0
Giroux
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
61.0% (420)
47.7% (686)
+13.3%
Power Play
66.4% (113)
49.3% (75)
+17.1%
Penalty Kill
65.6% (163)
48.9% (45)
+16.7%
On power play, Giroux has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Giroux shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
Giroux
McDavid
Home
66.6% (350)
50.0% (412)
Away
59.2% (346)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Giroux
McDavid
P1
62.1%
48.0%
P2
64.7%
48.5%
P3
61.6%
47.1%
OT
69.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
70.0%▲
57.0%
62.9%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |