Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 64 meetings). Giroux wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 56.9% vs Larkin 52.7% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Giroux leads 78-75 in 153 meetings
Offensive zone
Giroux 67.4%
Defensive zone
Giroux 65.6%
Neutral zone
Giroux 64.2%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Giroux
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
78
-
75
(153 meetings)
78
75
Giroux
Larkin
Last 10: Giroux 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
26
38
Giroux
Larkin
64 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
31
20
Giroux
Larkin
51 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Giroux
21
17
Giroux
Larkin
38 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (13,886)
51.6% (9,056)
+4.2%
Power Play
60.5% (4,081)
58.6% (2,140)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (2,528)
50.2% (1,124)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Giroux is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (14,401).
Giroux shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Home / Away
Giroux
Larkin
Home
59.2% (10,265)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
54.6% (10,270)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Giroux
Larkin
P1
57.5%
52.7%
P2
56.2%
53.1%
P3
57.3%
52.0%
OT
51.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
58.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
70.0%▲
57.0%
56.9%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:30 | Neutral | Claude Giroux |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 13:54 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:55 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 12:35 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 09:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |