Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 56.0%). Look for Giroux on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 65 meetings). Giroux wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 56.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Giroux leads 103-77 in 180 meetings
Offensive zone
Giroux 68.8%
Defensive zone
Giroux 60.6%
Neutral zone
Giroux 58.9%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Giroux
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
103
-
77
(180 meetings)
103
77
Giroux
O'Reilly
Last 10: Giroux 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
42
23
Giroux
O'Reilly
65 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
34
37
Giroux
O'Reilly
71 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Giroux
27
17
Giroux
O'Reilly
44 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (13,886)
56.2% (15,290)
-0.4%
Power Play
60.5% (4,081)
58.7% (3,457)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (2,528)
51.4% (2,826)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Giroux is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (14,401).
Giroux shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
Giroux
O'Reilly
Home
59.2% (10,265)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
54.6% (10,270)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Giroux
O'Reilly
P1
57.5%
55.6%
P2
56.2%
57.0%
P3
57.3%
55.0%
OT
51.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
58.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
70.0%▲
57.0%
56.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 03:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 08:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 08:20 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:23 | Neutral | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |