Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Giroux wins 63.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 61.3% vs Hertl 57.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.7%
Defensive zone
Giroux 85.9%
Neutral zone
Giroux 53.9%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Giroux
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Giroux
Hertl
Last 7: Giroux 5-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
0
Giroux
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
3
1
Giroux
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Giroux
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
61.0% (420)
58.7% (858)
+2.3%
Power Play
66.4% (113)
55.8% (285)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
65.6% (163)
62.9% (35)
+2.7%
On power play, Giroux has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Giroux shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Giroux
Hertl
Home
66.6% (350)
60.1% (599)
Away
59.2% (346)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Giroux
Hertl
P1
62.1%
52.4%
P2
64.7%
63.9%
P3
61.6%
58.5%
OT
69.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
61.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
70.0%▲
57.0%
62.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |