Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Schwindt wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwindt 49.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwindt 92.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 71.6%
Neutral zone
Schwindt 58.1%
Result
Cole Schwindt favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Schwindt
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Schwindt
Dowd
Last 7: Schwindt 1-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwindt
1
0
Schwindt
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Schwindt
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Schwindt
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwindt
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (370)
52.3% (6,036)
-4.2%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
56.1% (164)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (16)
44.1% (1,638)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Schwindt has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Schwindt is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Schwindt shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Schwindt
Dowd
Home
45.5% (213)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
52.5% (179)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Schwindt
Dowd
P1
51.8%
51.5%
P2
48.6%
50.4%
P3
46.2%
50.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwindt
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:15 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |