Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Eller 50.5% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 61.2%
Defensive zone
Fraser 55.5%
Neutral zone
Fraser 61.7%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Fraser
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Fraser
Eller
Last 8: Fraser 3-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Fraser
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
2
0
Fraser
Eller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
3
Fraser
Eller
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
51.1% (10,321)
-3.1%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
52.8% (621)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
46.6% (1,759)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Home / Away
Fraser
Eller
Home
48.6% (661)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
44.0% (602)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
Fraser
Eller
P1
46.7%
51.2%
P2
46.4%
50.1%
P3
46.2%
50.2%
OT
33.3%
56.7%
Final 5 min
46.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 01:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 2 | 12:51 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 09:59 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 3, 2011 | 2 | 13:46 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 3, 2011 | 1 | 18:39 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 1, 2010 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Lars Eller |