Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stajan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Stajan 49.4% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Stajan leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fraser 60.7%
Defensive zone
Stajan 66.2%
Neutral zone
Stajan 50.1%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Fraser
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Fraser
Stajan
Last 10: Fraser 5-5 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
2
Fraser
Stajan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
1
3
Fraser
Stajan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Stajan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
50.2% (4,944)
-2.2%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
43.2% (176)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
46.1% (864)
-10.3%
On power play, Fraser has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Stajan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,964).
Home / Away
Fraser
Stajan
Home
48.6% (661)
51.3% (3,098)
Away
44.0% (602)
47.3% (2,892)
By Period
Fraser
Stajan
P1
46.7%
50.3%
P2
46.4%
48.5%
P3
46.2%
49.4%
OT
33.3%
53.3%
Final 5 min
46.3%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2013 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 3 | 10:32 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 1 | 05:19 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 2 | 11:46 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 2 | 02:03 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 02:16 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |