Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.1% vs 46.4%). Look for Matthias on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Wilson wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Matthias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wilson 46.4% vs Matthias 46.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wilson 72.1%
Defensive zone
Matthias 70.4%
Neutral zone
Wilson 52.1%
Result
Colin Wilson favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Wilson
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Wilson
Matthias
Last 5: Wilson 2-3 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wilson
1
0
Wilson
Matthias
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthias
1
3
Wilson
Matthias
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wilson
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (845)
46.4% (1,716)
-1.4%
Power Play
50.4% (244)
56.3% (103)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
41.7% (175)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Matthias has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Wilson is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Wilson shoots left. Matthias is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,275).
Home / Away
Wilson
Matthias
Home
46.1% (531)
46.9% (933)
Away
46.1% (564)
45.9% (1,069)
By Period
Wilson
Matthias
P1
46.6%
47.8%
P2
43.2%
49.4%
P3
48.8%
41.6%
OT
45.5%
45.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wilson
38.0%▼
47.0%
46.1%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2014 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | Colin Wilson |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 1 | 09:09 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |