Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.2%). Look for Sissons on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 21 meetings). Sissons wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sissons 53.9% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 31-27 in 58 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.5%
Defensive zone
Sissons 77.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.6%
Result
Colton Sissons favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Sissons
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
31
(58 meetings)
27
31
Sissons
Pavelski
Last 10: Sissons 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
13
Sissons
Pavelski
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sissons
17
4
Sissons
Pavelski
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
14
Sissons
Pavelski
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sissons
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (6,081)
53.6% (8,791)
+1.9%
Power Play
55.6% (459)
58.2% (2,122)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (1,894)
50.9% (1,138)
-2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Sissons is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (2,456).
Sissons shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Sissons
Pavelski
Home
54.1% (4,256)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
53.7% (4,178)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Sissons
Pavelski
P1
53.8%
53.5%
P2
53.2%
55.2%
P3
54.8%
53.9%
OT
49.1%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sissons
64.0%▲
59.5%
53.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:57 | Neutral | Colton Sissons |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 12:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Colton Sissons |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 09:49 | Offensive | Colton Sissons |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:48 | Defensive | Colton Sissons |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Colton Sissons |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:28 | Defensive | Colton Sissons |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 10:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Colton Sissons |