Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.9% vs Larkin 52.7% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 83.9%
Defensive zone
Bedard 78.9%
Neutral zone
Bedard 86.1%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Bedard
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Bedard
Larkin
Last 10: Bedard 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
5
Bedard
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
1
Bedard
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
5
Bedard
Larkin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
39.7% (1,413)
51.7% (8,914)
-12.0%
Power Play
51.5% (68)
58.5% (2,099)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (22)
50.1% (1,102)
-4.6%
On even strength, Larkin has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Bedard is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,103).
Bedard shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,342).
Home / Away
Bedard
Larkin
Home
42.9% (707)
54.0% (6,206)
Away
38.1% (796)
51.4% (5,909)
By Period
Bedard
Larkin
P1
38.3%
52.7%
P2
39.8%
53.1%
P3
43.1%
52.1%
OT
38.9%
58.6%
Final 5 min
45.4%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
40.3%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 10:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |