Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Larkin 52.7% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 84.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 77.8%
Neutral zone
Bedard 85.3%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Bedard
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Bedard
Larkin
Last 10: Bedard 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
5
Bedard
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
1
Bedard
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
5
Bedard
Larkin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
51.6% (9,056)
-11.4%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
58.6% (2,140)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
50.2% (1,124)
-0.2%
On even strength, Larkin has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Bedard is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,259).
Bedard shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Home / Away
Bedard
Larkin
Home
43.3% (785)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
38.9% (957)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Bedard
Larkin
P1
38.9%
52.7%
P2
41.2%
53.1%
P3
42.5%
52.0%
OT
42.9%
58.4%
Final 5 min
44.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 10:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |