Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Stenlund 54.2% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 85.6%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 58.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 63.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Bedard
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bedard
Stenlund
Last 8: Bedard 3-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
5
Bedard
Stenlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
56.2% (650)
-12.0%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
53.2% (47)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
51.6% (312)
+2.2%
On power play, Bedard has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Bedard is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Bedard shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Bedard
Stenlund
Home
50.7% (223)
56.9% (483)
Away
42.6% (331)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Bedard
Stenlund
P1
40.2%
54.2%
P2
49.2%
53.2%
P3
47.2%
56.9%
OT
57.1%
42.1%
Final 5 min
45.2%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 09:08 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |