Connor Bedard vs Michael McCarron
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Bedard wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs McCarron 52.6% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 75.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 62.9%
Neutral zone
Bedard 64.9%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Bedard
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
15
(27 meetings)
12
15
Bedard
McCarron
Last 10: Bedard 3-7 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
7
1
Bedard
McCarron
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
6
Bedard
McCarron
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
4
8
Bedard
McCarron
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
53.3% (2,926)
-13.1%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
45.3% (86)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
50.1% (469)
-0.1%
On even strength, McCarron has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Bedard is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Bedard shoots right. McCarron is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,056).
Home / Away
Bedard
McCarron
Home
43.3% (785)
52.3% (1,696)
Away
38.9% (957)
53.1% (1,785)
By Period
Bedard
McCarron
P1
38.9%
53.8%
P2
41.2%
52.3%
P3
42.5%
51.9%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:12 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:09 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:01 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |