Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Backlund 49.8% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 71.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 81.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 63.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Bedard
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Bedard
Backlund
Last 9: Bedard 5-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Bedard
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
0
Bedard
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
50.5% (944)
-6.3%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
51.5% (66)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
47.1% (297)
+6.7%
On power play, Bedard has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Bedard shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Home / Away
Bedard
Backlund
Home
50.7% (223)
48.1% (636)
Away
42.6% (331)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Bedard
Backlund
P1
40.2%
45.4%
P2
49.2%
54.1%
P3
47.2%
49.2%
OT
57.1%
55.6%
Final 5 min
45.2%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 10:48 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |