Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Thomas 51.9% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 59.5%
Defensive zone
Bedard 60.6%
Neutral zone
Bedard 55.4%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Bedard
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Bedard
Thomas
Last 10: Bedard 4-6 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Bedard
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
3
4
Bedard
Thomas
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
50.3% (652)
-6.1%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
61.5% (104)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
54.2% (120)
-0.4%
On even strength, Thomas has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Bedard is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Bedard shoots right. Thomas is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
Bedard
Thomas
Home
50.7% (223)
52.0% (400)
Away
42.6% (331)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Bedard
Thomas
P1
40.2%
49.6%
P2
49.2%
55.4%
P3
47.2%
51.0%
OT
57.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
45.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |