Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Johansen 53.3% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 70.6%
Defensive zone
Bedard 74.4%
Neutral zone
Bedard 80.0%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Bedard
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bedard
Johansen
Last 5: Bedard 1-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Bedard
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Bedard
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Bedard
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
53.1% (11,017)
-12.9%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
56.2% (2,163)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
50.5% (978)
-0.5%
On even strength, Johansen has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Bedard is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Bedard shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Bedard
Johansen
Home
43.3% (785)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
38.9% (957)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Bedard
Johansen
P1
38.9%
53.2%
P2
41.2%
53.9%
P3
42.5%
52.8%
OT
42.9%
58.2%
Final 5 min
44.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:38 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:29 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 04:17 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |