Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 62.7%
Defensive zone
Bedard 61.9%
Neutral zone
Bedard 63.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Bedard
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Bedard
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Bedard
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Bedard
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Bedard
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
55.7% (856)
-11.5%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
57.5% (233)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
50.0% (144)
+3.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Bedard shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Bedard
O'Reilly
Home
50.7% (223)
55.5% (616)
Away
42.6% (331)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Bedard
O'Reilly
P1
40.2%
58.1%
P2
49.2%
54.9%
P3
47.2%
53.9%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:00 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:16 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |