Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 71.8%
Defensive zone
Bedard 82.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 77.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Bedard
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Bedard
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Bedard
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
57.1% (368)
-12.9%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
55.2% (96)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
50.0% (10)
+3.8%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bedard is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Bedard shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Bedard
Stamkos
Home
50.7% (223)
53.9% (230)
Away
42.6% (331)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Bedard
Stamkos
P1
40.2%
56.7%
P2
49.2%
54.1%
P3
47.2%
59.2%
OT
57.1%
62.5%
Final 5 min
45.2%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 07:01 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |