Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.0%
Defensive zone
Bedard 66.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.0%
23.0%
77.0%
Bedard
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Bedard
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
58.7% (858)
-14.5%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
55.8% (285)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
62.9% (35)
-9.1%
On even strength, Hertl has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Bedard shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Bedard
Hertl
Home
50.7% (223)
60.1% (599)
Away
42.6% (331)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Bedard
Hertl
P1
40.2%
52.4%
P2
49.2%
63.9%
P3
47.2%
58.5%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |