Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Raty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Raty wins 60.0% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 59.4% vs McDavid 48.1% (+13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Raty 72.3%
Defensive zone
Raty 96.3%
Neutral zone
Raty 89.2%
Result
Aatu Raty favored at 93.3%
93.3%
6.7%
Raty
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Raty
McDavid
Last 8: Raty 7-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Raty
McDavid
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Raty
7
0
Raty
McDavid
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
60.0% (505)
47.7% (686)
+12.3%
Power Play
72.7% (22)
49.3% (75)
+23.4%
Penalty Kill
62.6% (99)
48.9% (45)
+13.7%
On power play, Raty has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Raty is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (435).
Raty shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Raty
McDavid
Home
60.2% (354)
50.0% (412)
Away
61.8% (272)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Raty
McDavid
P1
55.7%
48.0%
P2
67.1%
48.5%
P3
59.0%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.3%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
56.0%▼
62.5%
60.9%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |