Chandler Stephenson vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stephenson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs McDavid 48.1% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephenson 57.7%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 81.7%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 65.0%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Stephenson
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Stephenson
McDavid
Last 6: Stephenson 6-0 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
4
0
Stephenson
McDavid
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stephenson
2
0
Stephenson
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
47.7% (686)
+4.3%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
49.3% (75)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
48.9% (45)
-9.4%
On power play, Stephenson has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Stephenson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Stephenson shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Stephenson
McDavid
Home
53.1% (672)
50.0% (412)
Away
51.1% (628)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Stephenson
McDavid
P1
54.2%
48.0%
P2
50.7%
48.5%
P3
52.0%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:10 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |