Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Backes 50.7% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 78.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 64.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
McDavid
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
McDavid
Backes
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
4
McDavid
Backes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
1
4
McDavid
Backes
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
51.1% (5,772)
-3.4%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
50.8% (1,082)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
47.4% (930)
-3.6%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Home / Away
McDavid
Backes
Home
49.3% (4,582)
50.6% (3,936)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
50.7% (3,895)
By Period
McDavid
Backes
P1
46.5%
50.1%
P2
48.7%
51.5%
P3
48.3%
50.8%
OT
42.2%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 18:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 1 | 15:36 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 09:29 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 12:59 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 08:52 | Defensive | David Backes |