Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lindholm shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Lindholm 55.3% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 68.9%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 83.5%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 70.5%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 76.5%
23.5%
76.5%
McDavid
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Lindholm
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Lindholm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Lindholm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Lindholm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
54.8% (766)
-7.1%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
62.3% (175)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
52.2% (92)
-3.3%
On power play, Lindholm has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lindholm
Home
50.0% (412)
56.6% (578)
Away
45.7% (394)
54.9% (455)
By Period
McDavid
Lindholm
P1
48.0%
55.2%
P2
48.5%
56.3%
P3
47.1%
56.3%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 18:54 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |