Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Hughes 39.5% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 79.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 64.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
McDavid
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Hughes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
36.7% (305)
+11.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
14.3% (7)
+35.0%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
33.3% (6)
+15.6%
On power play, McDavid has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Hughes is 33.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hughes
Home
50.0% (412)
35.8% (159)
Away
45.7% (394)
36.5% (159)
By Period
McDavid
Hughes
P1
48.0%
42.3%
P2
48.5%
28.2%
P3
47.1%
37.2%
Final 5 min
50.6%
27.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 05:30 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |