Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Spezza 54.7% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
McDavid
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
McDavid
Spezza
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
3
McDavid
Spezza
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
6
McDavid
Spezza
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
Spezza
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
54.4% (7,990)
-6.7%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
56.8% (1,726)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
52.7% (643)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
McDavid
Spezza
Home
49.3% (4,582)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
McDavid
Spezza
P1
46.5%
55.7%
P2
48.7%
54.4%
P3
48.3%
54.1%
OT
42.2%
51.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 10:33 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 12:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 02:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2020 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 3 | 03:59 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 3 | 01:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 2 | 19:21 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 2 | 12:25 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |