Connor McDavid vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 47.9%). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Kotkaniemi 48.6% (+0.0%)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 53.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
47.3% (207)
+0.4%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
100.0% (3)
-50.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
33.3% (3)
+15.6%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +50.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Home
50.0% (412)
46.5% (129)
Away
45.7% (394)
50.0% (84)
By Period
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
P1
48.0%
51.3%
P2
48.5%
46.1%
P3
47.1%
45.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%