Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Thornton 54.3% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 18-8 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 73.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 86.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
McDavid
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
18
(26 meetings)
8
18
McDavid
Thornton
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
2
McDavid
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
8
McDavid
Thornton
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
8
McDavid
Thornton
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
53.5% (6,640)
-5.8%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
57.2% (1,387)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
56.7% (427)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thornton
Home
49.3% (4,582)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
McDavid
Thornton
P1
46.5%
55.0%
P2
48.7%
53.3%
P3
48.3%
54.4%
OT
42.2%
56.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 12:42 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 12:31 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 1 | 05:08 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:40 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:29 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 18:48 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 2 | 18:04 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 18, 2017 | 3 | 09:14 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 18, 2017 | 1 | 17:39 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2017 | 1 | 15:53 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 08:55 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |