Connor McDavid vs Jonathan Marchessault

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Connor McDavid holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Marchessault shoots right.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) McDavid 48.1% vs Marchessault 46.7% (+10.1%)
Offensive zone Marchessault 53.9%
Defensive zone McDavid 66.9%
Neutral zone McDavid 53.8%
Result Connor McDavid favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
McDavid Marchessault
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded

Situation Matchup

Situation
McDavid
Marchessault
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
35.3% (34)
+12.4%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
66.7% (3)
-17.4%
On power play, Marchessault has a +17.4% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Marchessault shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Marchessault is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (25).
Home / Away
McDavid
Marchessault
Home
50.0% (412)
40.0% (25)
Away
45.7% (394)
33.3% (12)
By Period
McDavid
Marchessault
P1
48.0%
50.0%
P2
48.5%
30.8%
P3
47.1%
22.2%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
12.5%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%
51.5%
47.9%
Marchessault
36.0%
32.5%
37.8%