Connor McDavid vs Jonathan Marchessault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Marchessault shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Marchessault 46.7% (+10.1%)
Offensive zone
Marchessault 53.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 66.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
McDavid
Marchessault
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Marchessault
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
35.3% (34)
+12.4%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
66.7% (3)
-17.4%
On power play, Marchessault has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchessault shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Marchessault is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (25).
Home / Away
McDavid
Marchessault
Home
50.0% (412)
40.0% (25)
Away
45.7% (394)
33.3% (12)
By Period
McDavid
Marchessault
P1
48.0%
50.0%
P2
48.5%
30.8%
P3
47.1%
22.2%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
12.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
37.8%