Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Toews 60.4% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
McDavid
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDavid
Toews
Last 5: McDavid 2-3 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
McDavid
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Toews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
62.6% (728)
-14.9%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
59.4% (143)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
46.9% (32)
+2.0%
On even strength, Toews has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
McDavid
Toews
Home
50.0% (412)
61.1% (455)
Away
45.7% (394)
62.1% (448)
By Period
McDavid
Toews
P1
48.0%
59.7%
P2
48.5%
66.7%
P3
47.1%
58.4%
OT
50.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 14:24 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |