Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Staal 54.6% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 51.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 80.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 65.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
McDavid
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
McDavid
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
56.2% (989)
-8.5%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
66.0% (159)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
42.7% (253)
+6.2%
On power play, Staal has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
McDavid
Staal
Home
50.0% (412)
55.4% (699)
Away
45.7% (394)
54.4% (702)
By Period
McDavid
Staal
P1
48.0%
55.7%
P2
48.5%
54.7%
P3
47.1%
53.4%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |