Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Barzal 41.9% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 50.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 50.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 51.6%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
McDavid
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Barzal
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Barzal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
McDavid
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
40.9% (469)
+6.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
34.2% (38)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
28.6% (7)
+20.3%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
McDavid
Barzal
Home
50.0% (412)
39.2% (250)
Away
45.7% (394)
41.3% (264)
By Period
McDavid
Barzal
P1
48.0%
46.3%
P2
48.5%
36.7%
P3
47.1%
38.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |