Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Duchene 51.8% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
McDavid
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
McDavid
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
51.1% (366)
-3.4%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
61.5% (65)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
16.7% (6)
+32.2%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +32.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
McDavid
Duchene
Home
50.0% (412)
51.7% (201)
Away
45.7% (394)
52.5% (236)
By Period
McDavid
Duchene
P1
48.0%
49.0%
P2
48.5%
57.1%
P3
47.1%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |