Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 48.7%). Look for Beniers on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Beniers 48.8% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 15-2 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Beniers 52.0%
Defensive zone
Beniers 62.7%
Neutral zone
Beniers 53.5%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
McDavid
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
15
(17 meetings)
2
15
McDavid
Beniers
Last 10: McDavid 1-9 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
4
McDavid
Beniers
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
3
McDavid
Beniers
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
8
McDavid
Beniers
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
48.3% (862)
-0.6%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
58.3% (36)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
50.0% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, Beniers has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Beniers is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (634).
Home / Away
McDavid
Beniers
Home
50.0% (412)
52.4% (460)
Away
45.7% (394)
45.1% (470)
By Period
McDavid
Beniers
P1
48.0%
47.5%
P2
48.5%
50.6%
P3
47.1%
47.6%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
50.6%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:32 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 16:16 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 05:23 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |