Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 49.6% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
McDavid
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
McDavid
MacKinnon
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
3
McDavid
MacKinnon
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (789)
49.7% (1,134)
-0.3%
Power Play
50.0% (84)
63.5% (167)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (50)
33.3% (33)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (281).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (965).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
51.8% (479)
52.7% (674)
Away
47.1% (444)
49.4% (660)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
49.5%
49.6%
P2
49.7%
52.5%
P3
49.7%
50.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.9%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
60.0%▲
58.0%
49.5%
MacKinnon
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | 3 | 14:51 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:50 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 2 | 07:24 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 1 | 15:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:32 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |