Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
McDavid
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McDavid
MacKinnon
Last 7: McDavid 6-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
1
McDavid
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
49.7% (1,038)
-2.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
63.7% (157)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
34.4% (32)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
50.0% (412)
53.1% (618)
Away
45.7% (394)
49.1% (609)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
48.0%
49.3%
P2
48.5%
53.0%
P3
47.1%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:32 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |