Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 67.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 52.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
McDavid
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
49.7% (292)
-2.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
50.0% (6)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
47.2% (36)
+1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bjugstad
Home
50.0% (412)
48.7% (193)
Away
45.7% (394)
50.4% (141)
By Period
McDavid
Bjugstad
P1
48.0%
41.5%
P2
48.5%
57.3%
P3
47.1%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 19:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:53 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |