Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Suzuki 50.6% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 64.3%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 55.2%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 63.5%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
McDavid
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Suzuki
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Suzuki
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
51.3% (945)
-3.6%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
50.7% (282)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
40.3% (67)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Suzuki is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (976).
Home / Away
McDavid
Suzuki
Home
50.0% (412)
51.0% (637)
Away
45.7% (394)
50.2% (657)
By Period
McDavid
Suzuki
P1
48.0%
53.1%
P2
48.5%
47.4%
P3
47.1%
51.3%
OT
50.0%
48.6%
Final 5 min
50.6%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Suzuki
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |