Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 48.2%). McDavid wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Kapanen 48.5% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 51.3%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 50.9%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 58.1%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
McDavid
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Kapanen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
48.4% (450)
-2.1%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
54.1% (37)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
37.5% (32)
+15.1%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. McDavid is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (187).
McDavid shoots left. Kapanen is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (383).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kapanen
Home
49.8% (325)
48.1% (266)
Away
44.6% (316)
48.2% (253)
By Period
McDavid
Kapanen
P1
46.2%
42.0%
P2
48.6%
52.9%
P3
47.1%
49.4%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Kapanen
58.0%▲
47.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 05:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |