Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Stastny 55.1% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 40-20 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 85.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 92.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 93.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 90.1%
90.1%
9.9%
McDavid
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
40
(60 meetings)
20
40
McDavid
Stastny
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
8
13
McDavid
Stastny
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
6
15
McDavid
Stastny
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
6
12
McDavid
Stastny
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
54.6% (10,616)
-6.9%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
59.1% (1,994)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
52.9% (1,119)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stastny
Home
49.3% (4,582)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
McDavid
Stastny
P1
46.5%
56.3%
P2
48.7%
55.4%
P3
48.3%
53.5%
OT
42.2%
62.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 05:27 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 12:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 08:10 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 06:45 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 09:35 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 14:24 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 13:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |