Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Thomas 51.9% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.6%
Defensive zone
Thomas 55.0%
Neutral zone
Thomas 53.4%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Thomas
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
McDavid
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
50.3% (652)
-2.6%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
61.5% (104)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
54.2% (120)
-5.3%
On power play, Thomas has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
50.0% (412)
52.0% (400)
Away
45.7% (394)
52.3% (476)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
48.0%
49.6%
P2
48.5%
55.4%
P3
47.1%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.6%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |