Scouting Report
Roope Hintz holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hintz on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hintz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Hintz 58.0% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 77.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 77.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
McDavid
Hintz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
McDavid
Hintz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hintz
0
3
McDavid
Hintz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hintz
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
58.7% (530)
-11.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
59.4% (170)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
66.7% (27)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, Hintz has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hintz shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Hintz is 60.2% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hintz
Home
50.0% (412)
60.2% (354)
Away
45.7% (394)
58.2% (373)
By Period
McDavid
Hintz
P1
48.0%
58.4%
P2
48.5%
59.8%
P3
47.1%
58.2%
OT
50.0%
81.8%
Final 5 min
50.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Hintz
64.0%▲
61.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:33 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |