Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Hartman 45.6% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 51.9%
Defensive zone
Hartman 61.2%
Neutral zone
Hartman 57.4%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
McDavid
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Hartman
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
3
McDavid
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Hartman
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
45.1% (874)
+2.6%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
47.4% (95)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
37.5% (16)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hartman
Home
50.0% (412)
45.0% (515)
Away
45.7% (394)
45.3% (470)
By Period
McDavid
Hartman
P1
48.0%
47.3%
P2
48.5%
40.1%
P3
47.1%
48.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:16 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |