Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (55% H2H, 11 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 60.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
McDavid
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
13
(24 meetings)
11
13
McDavid
O'Reilly
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
6
McDavid
O'Reilly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
McDavid
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
McDavid
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
55.7% (856)
-8.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
57.5% (233)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
50.0% (144)
-1.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
McDavid
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (412)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.7% (394)
55.3% (617)
By Period
McDavid
O'Reilly
P1
48.0%
58.1%
P2
48.5%
54.9%
P3
47.1%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 12:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |