Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Carrick 53.1% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 63.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.3%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
McDavid
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
McDavid
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
54.3% (346)
-8.0%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
66.7% (3)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
48.4% (31)
+4.2%
On power play, Carrick has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McDavid is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (187).
McDavid shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carrick
Home
49.8% (325)
59.0% (161)
Away
44.6% (316)
50.2% (219)
By Period
McDavid
Carrick
P1
46.2%
55.5%
P2
48.6%
51.2%
P3
47.1%
55.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 13:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |