Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Carrick 54.2% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 80.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 64.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 57.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
McDavid
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
McDavid
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
55.5% (470)
-7.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
66.7% (3)
-17.4%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
50.0% (58)
-1.1%
On power play, Carrick has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carrick
Home
50.0% (412)
58.6% (261)
Away
45.7% (394)
51.5% (270)
By Period
McDavid
Carrick
P1
48.0%
55.9%
P2
48.5%
53.5%
P3
47.1%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 13:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |